SEATTLE — After the 2016 presidential election, many may be asking, "Can I trust the polls?" After all, nearly every national poll showed Hillary Clinton leading all the way up until the election before candidate Donald Trump pulled out a stunning upset.
So far this fall, Joe Biden has led Trump in the polls by an average of 7.1%, according to polling data from RealClearPolitics. In comparison, Clinton led Trump by an average of 3.7% in fall 2016.
There are some differences between 2016 and the 2020 election that may help explain the latest polls.
According to Pew Research Center, problems with polls in 2016 in a few key Midwestern states led many people to underestimate the chances of a Trump victory.
Many state pollsters didn't adjust their 2016 polls to reflect that college graduates are more likely to take surveys than adults with less formal education.
Also in 2016, polls did not reflect the final days leading up to the election, when Trump surged ahead of Clinton with last minute enthusiasm.
"I don't think we are going to see a repeat of 2016 in 2020," said Marco Lowe, a political science professor at Seattle University. "The challenge in 2016 was that there was an intensity of voters for President Trump that normally wasn't in that population. So they hit the ballot box in these key counties where he squeaked out a narrow victory."
Pollsters are now weighing that group of rural voters, which is a higher amount in the 2020 polls.