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Will Washington keep flattening the COVID-19 curve? It's too early to tell, state says

Immunity is playing a bigger role in slowing the spread of the virus as vaccination increases, but transmission still on the rise, according to a state report.

The Washington State Department of Health reported there are signs in the most recent data that COVID-19 cases may be starting to flatten, but disease activity remains high.

The state said it was too soon to tell whether the flattening trend will continue.

“We are cautiously optimistic about a possible plateau in the most recent data, but we are still in a fourth wave and seeing a number of concerning signs. DOH will continue monitoring these trends closely,” said Acting State Health Officer Scott Lindquist, in a prepared statement. “No matter what, we all need to keep taking precautions like wearing masks and gathering outside. If you haven’t been vaccinated, now is the time to protect yourself, your loved ones and your community. We can all help by talking to people we know about vaccination. Every vaccine makes a difference.”

The state found:

Case counts remain high following increases in late March and most of April.

As of April 22, case trends varied more from county to county than in previous weeks. Many counties were continuing to see increases at that time, but quite a few were experiencing flattening trends.

As of May 6, 80% of all cases in the state were likely due to the B.1.1.7 variant first observed in the United Kingdom, and about 10% were due to the P.1 variant first observed in Brazil.

More people have immunity from vaccination — 19.3% of the population —  than from a previous infection, about 12.6% of the population.

The state said the spread of COVID-19 shows that immunity is not yet high enough to control the virus on its own without other precautions such as wearing masks and social distancing. 

Still, case rates and hospital admission rates were on the rise, except for people 70 and older. People ages 20-29 had the highest case rates and sharpest increases in case rates. Cases were also increasing sharply among people ages 10-19 and 30-59.

The entire situation report is available online

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