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Coronavirus forecast: Deaths per day in Washington state may have already peaked

Additional data has led to researchers predicting that coronavirus-related deaths per day may have already spiked.

SEATTLE — The number of people who die per day in Washington state due to coronavirus may have already peaked, according to the latest data.

Researchers with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington previously forecast that deaths per day would peak by mid-to-late April, with 27 people dying each day. 

The peak number of deaths may have already occurred on March 27, when 24 people died.

Though Washington state could see another spike in deaths in the coming days, the data model shows a downward trend into the beginning of May. Fewer than 20 deaths per day are expected between April 6 and May 6.

Credit: IHME

April 16 is still predicted to be the peak day for daily deaths across the U.S. At the peak date, the number of coronavirus deaths is now estimated to reach 3,130. 

The changes to the forecast comes after changes to the model. That includes factoring in the epidemic peak and its relationship to social distancing. 

Additionally, the new data shows potentially lower overall hospital resource needs in the U.S and lower levels of predicted need for ICU beds and ventilators.

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As of April 5, the IHME said the U.S. will need 140,823 beds at its peak on April 15. But due to uncertainties such as limited and conflicting data and study sizes, that number could be as low as 73,390 or as high as 284,459.

The next day, the U.S. will reach its peak of ICU beds needed -- 29,417 -- with an uncertainty range of 16,149 to 55,869, according to IHME.

For invasive ventilators, the IHME model projects the U.S. will hit its peak need on April 16. It will need an estimated 25,004 ventilators. But the uncertainty factor means it could be as low as 14,084 or as high as 46,073.

Deaths per day in the U.S. are expected to rise dramatically in the coming week and a half, according to IHME. Its projected peak is April 16 with 3,130 deaths. But the uncertainty factors means the country could see a daily death toll as high as 8,000 before things turn around.

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The model currently projects total deaths in the U.S. to flatten out at 81,766 by June 22. Again, uncertainties in the data collection put the possible final number between 49,431 and 136,401. 

As of early Monday morning, the U.S. had more than 9,600 deaths with more than 3,000 of those in New York City, according to Johns Hopkins University. 

The projection goes through July and assumes that social distancing measures will continue. IHME says it predicts that it will lead to an end to the "first wave" of the epidemic in June. It says whether there is a second wave will depend on what efforts are made to avoid COVID-19 being reintroduced into the population.