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Coronavirus forecast: Deaths could peak in Washington state by mid-April

As many as 27 people could die per day in Washington state by mid-April, according to researchers with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

SEATTLE — Researchers with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington say deaths related to coronavirus in Washington state could persist into July, even if people adhere to social distancing measures and other precautions.

Based on observed death rates, approximately 81,000 people could die from the virus over the next four months across the United States.

By August 4, a total of 1,429 people in Washington state are projected to die due to coronavirus.

RELATED: Here are the deaths and cases of coronavirus in Washington state

The number of Washington state residents who die per day from coronavirus, according to the forecast, is expected to peak by mid-to-late April with 27 deaths per day.

Based on the analysis, 41 states will need more ICU beds than they have and 11 states may need to increase their ICU beds by 50%. 

RELATED: Map: Tracking the coronavirus outbreak in Washington state

“Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital and health workers, and government agencies,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. “The trajectory of the pandemic will change – and dramatically for the worse – if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions. We encourage everyone to adhere to those precautions to help save lives.”

As of Thursday afternoon, there have been 147 coronavirus deaths in Washington state among 3,207 confirmed cases, according to the state Department of Health.

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