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KING 5 Senate poll: Dead heat



Posted on October 28, 2010 at 10:17 PM

Updated Thursday, Oct 28 at 11:19 PM

A new KING 5 poll finds a dead heat in the race for U.S. Senate, with 47% telling SurveyUSA they'll vote for Republican Dino Rossi, and 47% saying they'll vote for Democratic incumbent Patty Murray.

Right after the primary in August, our tracking poll find Rossi ahead.  In September, it flipped and Murray took the lead.  Now, it's absolutely even and too close to call.  The margin of error is +/- 3.8%.

In our previous tracking polls, Murray has enjoyed a double-digit advantage among women and older voters.  Our new poll finds that advantage is getting smaller.

Among women, Murray's lead is now down to just six points.  As expected, she does better in central Puget Sound--about nine points ahead.  Meanwhile, her lead among older voters has shrunk, but she still has a very slight edge with those over 50.

Meanwhile, Rossi is leading among independents.  He continues to have more support from men with a seven-point advantage.  Republicans usually do better in eastern Washington and Rossi is ahead there by 15 points.  And Rossi polls best among voters 35 to 49.

The poll was conducted over three days including people with both landlines and cell phones, using automated and live interviews of 678 likely and actual voters.

With the margin so close, it may very well come down to who bothers to vote.  And at this rate, we may or may not know the outcome on election night.