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Jeff's Sound to Summit Forecast
Keep Thinking, "It's Early in the Season"
Friday, May 9, 2008
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How many times have you arrived someplace only to hear, “too bad…you should have been here yesterday!” That will be the situation this weekend.
THE BIG PICTURE
A ridge of high pressure will set up some very nice weather Friday. Unfortunately, the "guts" of the high will sit well to the south, off the California coast. That opens the door to an approaching cold front Saturday; read that to mean increasing clouds and rain. Because the front shouldn't move through until later in the day, temperatures should be only a bit below normal. But then a trough of low pressure centered in the mid to upper atmosphere will swing through early Sunday. That will introduce very chilly air, plus set the stage for a Puget Sound Convergence Zone. Mom will not be amused!
BOATING:
Saturday will see gradually increasing winds in most though not all areas; good news for sailors yet not strong enough to be a serious threat for most powercraft until late in the day or evening. Temperatures, as noted above, will be moderate.
Sunday is a different matter. Fluky winds are likely in the Sound, especially in the central Sound, and strong winds through the Strait into Admiralty Inlet. Expect unseasonably chilly conditions. .
COAST:
Saturday winds will shift from the south to southwest at 10 to 25 mph with swell rising from the west to 7'. Winds Sunday should be from the west at 10 to 20 mph, but swell could build to 10 or 11 feet.
STRAIT:
Winds Saturday will be variable and fairly light, 5 to 15 mph. Sunday, look for them to rip, especially in the central to east parts of the Strait, 10 to 30 mph.
BELLINGHAM BAY TO POSSESSION SOUND/SAN JUANS:
Expect south to southeast winds 10 to 15 mph Saturday, veering to southwesterly Sunday and rising to 10 to 20 mph.
PUGET SOUND:
Moderate southerly winds of 5 to 15 mph are likely Saturday, becoming southwesterly at 5 to 15 mph south of Seattle and northwesterly 5 to 15 mph from about Mukilteo or Edmonds northward. In between, maddeningly fluky winds shifting more often than the stock market.
BOATING NOTES: Take your foul weather gear this weekend, and if you're heading out along the coast Sunday, apply seasickness patches before casting off from the dock.
MOUNTAINS
How badly do you really want to play in the mountains this weekend. Not all places will be equally cursed by autumn to almost winter-like weather, so read on and as the line went in the last Indiana Jones movie, know that “you must choose-wisely!”
Saturday
A weakening front will approach western Washington; it will bring increasing clouds and then a mix of rain and snow especially later in the morning and afternoon. Rain is most likely in or below pass elevation (a cold rain so dress in layers) but snow at unseasonably low elevations. .
Snow Level: 5,000 to 6,000 feet.
Pass Highs/6000 foot Highs/10,000 foot Highs
45 to 50/40 to 46/25 to 30
Pass Winds/6,000' Winds/10,000' Winds
West 5 to 10 mph/Southwest 25 to 35 mph/West-Southwest 20 to 40 mph
Sunday
Even cooler air will invade western Washington as a trough of low pressure centered in the upper atmosphere swings through. That means dropping snow levels; and the potential for wet snow or a rain/snow mix in the passes.
Snow Level: 3,000 to 4,000’
Pass Highs/6000 foot Highs/10,000 foot Highs
40 to 44/34 to 39/23 to 27
Pass Winds/6,000' Winds/10,000' Winds
West 10 to 15 mph/West 20 to 30 mph/West Northwest 20 to 30 mph
Special Mountain Notes Neither day will leave you much of an "alpenglow". Sunday looks the worst; the kind that would leave me questioning how badly I want to head up to the mountains. The exception could be east of the Cascade crest, in places such as Leavenworth or Winthrop and Mazama; those should enjoy some rain shadowing from the Cascades. That's weather speak for a better chance of dry weather. Do be aware that some gusty west to northwesterly winds are likely in areas just east of the major east west passes, such as Cle Elum to Ellensburg along the Teanaway and Yakima rivers.
Keep your chin up...early indications point to much nicer weather by next weekend!
Jeff Renner is the Chief Meteorologist for KING 5 News, and the author of Mountain Weather and Lightning Strikes on thunderstorm safety, both published by Mountaineers Books, aimed at making sure you don't find yourself staying at home, wishing you were enjoying a beautiful day in the mountains or on the Sound, or hunkered down in a storm desperately wishing you were at home.
