Hmm...the ninth warmest February on record. Not the stuff of which skiers or snowboarders' dreams are made.
THE SNOW MAP: An approaching front offshore will be slow to move inland. Winds aloft are pushing it more to the north than to the east, and slowly weakening it. That doesn't mean we won't wring some precipitation from it. To the contrary, Friday looks wet. Initially, easterly flow through the passes will insulate them from the warm air surging inland from the Pacific ocean. That means snow, with snow falling at/above 3,000 feet. But as the day wears on, and warm air increasingly pushes inland, the snow level will rise to between 4,000 and 4,500 feet. The higher reaches of the volcanic peaks could see 8 to 12" (a day for Mount Baker?!), but elsewhere snow accumulations will range from trace amounts to 4". Keep in mind that later in the day, the snow will get wetter. That means deteriorating conditions and an increasing avalanche hazard.
Saturday, a complex pattern of lows offshore will split, with one heading into California, the other well north into the Queen Charlotte Islands and southeast Alaska. Much cooler air will follow, resulting in falling snow levels, probably dropping to between 2,500 and 3,000 feet from Mount Baker to Stevens pass, 3,000 to 3,500 south to Snoqualmie pass and slightly higher from Crystal to White Pass. The heaviest snow or snow/rain mix will occur during the morning (wind shield wipers for your goggles!) and then slowly diminish in the afternoon. With the exception of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak (both of which could see 6 to 8", the other areas of the Cascades and Olympics that get measurable snow (and not just a dousing of rain) will probably pick up from trace to 4".
Sundays' snow map...will be bare. High pressure, a dry day.
THE COMFORT FORECAST: Saturday, a good waterproof shell in the morning, with a thin fleece layer beneath (unless of course you tend to chill easily). Good, waterproof gloves (I hate wet hands unless I'm scuba diving in the tropics!) Showers should slowly diminish in the afternoon, and a few sunbreaks are possible. That means sunscreen and a good means to dry your goggles.
Sunday-sunshine. That means sunscreen and good goggles. Expect to find significant differences in snow quality and density from lower elevations to ridgetops and summits. This would be a weekend to ski the highest elevations available.
Snow Level Saturday: 2,500 to 3,000 feet in the morning (lowest to the north), rising to between 4,000 and 4,500 feet south of Snoqualmie pass, especially near White pass.
Freezing Level Sunday: 5,000 to 6,000 feet.
SATURDAY BASE WEATHER: A mix of rain and snow showers, decreasing in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 30's. Westerly winds 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY UPPER MOUNTAIN WEATHER: Snow showers decreasing in the afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 30's, west to northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY BASE WEATHER: Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 30's to low 40's. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
SUNDAY UPPER MOUNTAIN WEATHER: Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 30's. South to southwest winds 5-15 mph.
Obviously base elevations vary from one area to another as do summit elevations, but the numbers I offer above are representative of the average.
BACKCOUNTRY PROSPECTS: This weekend worries me, as it's been so long since we've had significant new snow that the temptation to head into the backcountry will be very high. So will the avalanche hazard Friday, and the mix of rain or wet snow will keep it there. As snow levels fall, so will the avalanche hazard-slightly. As I write this, the avalanche hazard is projected to be considerable Saturday, undoubtedly easing more Sunday. I'd suggest reigning in your enthusiasm and be patient. Be certain to check with the experts at the Northwest Avalanche Center before you head out. Their website is www.nwac.us. They definitely merit your attention and support if you ever stray into the backcountry. I consider it a "must" before my outings.
Jeff Renner is the Chief Meteorologist for KING 5 News and the author of Mountain Weather, published by Mountaineers Books, aimed at making sure you don't find yourself staying at home, wishing you were enjoying a beautiful day in the mountains...or hunkered down in a storm...desperately wishing you were at home.
