SEATTLE - Is the housing boom in Western Washington about to go bust? A big-name magazine predicts that home prices in Seattle will go down over the next few years.

But some local realtors say the prediction doesn't hold water.

KING

Fortune magazine predicts that home prices in Seattle will go down over the next few years.

The latest report from the Northwest MLS shows that inventory is up and sales are down from a year ago. But prices don't seem to be dropping.

Tim Ellis doesn't sell houses in Seattle. He's never even bought one. When he tried to buy one a couple of years ago, he found the prices very outrageous. He couldn't understand why, so he started to do research – a lot of it.

That led to a comprehensive blog – seattlebubble.com – that now registers 8,000 hits a day.

The hot topic: Is the bubble bursting?

"The general consensus, I think, is at the very least we're going to see two to three years of moderate price declines, 5 to 10 percent," he said.

Tim's living room analysis is right on track with a new report by Fortune magazine. It calculated that over the next five years home prices in Seattle will drop 19.5 percent.

"That's extremely speculative, and we just don't think it's reliable to look five years out," said Russell Hokanson, Seattle-King County Association of Realtors.

Hokanson doesn't buy the prediction. Even though homes aren't appreciating at hyperspeed anymore, he says plenty of data indicates the market has simply normalized and is stable.

"We're a desirable place to live, people continue to move here for jobs," he said.

If and when prices go down, Tim's blog will be up. He admits a drop would work in his favor. He's still in the market for an affordable home.

The Fortune report listed 25 cities across the country where prices are expected to drop. The biggest change is in Orlando where home prices are expected to plummet more than 34 percent.

The Northwest MLS reports for the month of October, pending sales in Western Washington were down 28 percent from last year, and there are 31 percent more homes on the market.