05:34 PM PDT on Tuesday, May 23, 2006

By ELLEN LIANG / KING5.com

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SEATTLE - Eric Horvitz is on a business trip in Wash., D.C., when I call him to talk about the Microsoft traffic predictor. One of the first things he says is, “I’m looking at my cell phone and can see 520 is open right now but will be clogged in about 30 minutes.”

Horvitz and his team at Microsoft began working on the traffic predictor, called JamBayes, two years ago by collecting a database on Seattle area’s traffic system. Data comes from traffic jams, times and days of week, weather patterns, major events like sports games and DOT warnings.

“We built a case library of these different streams of events; could we predict the future and tell people when jams would be likely to melt away? And if they’re open, how much time until they’re clogged?” Horvitz said.

Microsoft

Microsoft's Eric Horvitz consults his cell phone for the latest traffic conditions and predictions.

The software, now just a prototype, can be installed on a PC or a Windows-powered smart phone. In both cases, users can zoom around the map and check traffic cameras. Older cell phones can receive text messages sent to alert when a given road will be open.

JamBayes does all this reasoning on a server at Microsoft for different segments of the road systems. It shows “hot spots,” and if there’s congestion a clock tells drivers how much time until it will clear up. That way someone at work can stay late to avoid heavy traffic, and the device will signal when roads are clearer.

It also computes situations when people will be surprised by traffic and alerts them of the changes.

“For instance, I tell JamBayes when I will go home, from Microsoft to Kirkland, I tell it when my commute will be,” Horvitz said. “It will only alert me if it will be strangely crowded or strangely free.”

His team has also worked on a smart alarm clock that looks at a commute and tells the driver if you can sleep in longer or if you need more time.

Microsoft

JamBayes at work on a cell phone. The green circle illustrates how much time is left before that stretch of I-5 is expected to jam up with traffic.

Although typically drivers want to know about conditions within a couple of hours, JamBayes can also forecast travel days ahead of time.

To build more effective forecasts, Microsoft workers were issued GPS devices to track patterns and understand all parts of Seattle roads that aren’t part of the sensed highway system, such as side streets, Horvitz said.  

Some 6,000 Microsoft staff are now using JamBayes. Since the study began, Horvitz said, it’s helped their commutes.

“Seattle can really benefit by a little bit of forecasting spread to masses so they can triage when they leave, even if only by 15 or 20 minutes,” Horvitz said.

Slight changes are all that’s needed to speed traffic flow. For instance, “we noticed that when school is out there’s a major influence on traffic patterns,” Horvitz said.

“If people are more aware, they can do slight time shifts and deliver more capacity to the highway system. Seattle’s aging, hardened arteries – 405,520, I-5 -- can really benefit from this.”

As we end the interview some 20 minutes later, Horvitz says: “Forecast is clogged just as I thought it would -- it says clogs will be for an hour or more in both directions on 520.”

Although JamBayes is not commercially available, Horvitz says Microsoft is in "active discussions" about offering it to the public. Microsoft has also licensed the technology to Kirkand-based Inrix, which is now marketing the service in a variety of cities.

( Read more about Inrix's new service called the "Dust Network.")