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NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship: Rating Randy
10:00 PM PDT on Thursday, June 26, 2008
Two weeks ago, I asked the question, "Can you win a league title this year by taking Tom Brady in the first round?" Brady's Average Draft Position (ADP) is now at No. 6, likely the highest position for any quarterback since Kurt Warner in 2002. But even as good as Brady was last year and is expected to be this year, can you honestly win a title by drafting a QB THAT high?
After much analysis and even a practice run of drafting Brady seventh this week in a 14-team NFFC Satellite League, I'm convinced that you can win a league title with Brady as a Top 10 pick. In that draft, I still was able to get a solid RB (Laurence Maroney), a solid WR (Torry Holt) and a solid backup RB (Earnest Graham). By the time other owners were trying to find a suitable QB, I was gobbling up solid wideouts in Jerricho Cotchery and Kevin Curtis, while adding suitable depth later on. So it can be done in larger leagues like the NFFC and it certainly can be done in 12-team leagues.
While I'm not trying to belabor this point, it made me ask the next obvious question when looking at the first round: "Can you win a league title this year by taking Randy Moss in the first round?" After all, no wideout since Jerry Rice has gone as high as Moss is going this year. His ADP right now is 7th after he set an NFL record last year with 23 TD receptions and added 98 catches for 1,493 yards. Wide receivers have gone as high as 12th in recent years, but nobody in the last decade has consistently been selected in the Top 10 like Moss has been this year.
So let's analyze Moss' situation and see if it makes sense to take him this high.
First of all, more leagues are going to Point-Per-Reception scoring systems, so drafting a wide receiver first certainly makes sense these days. The days of RB-RB-RB are LONG gone in PPR leagues and a guy like Moss can downright dominate this position, even with the incredible depth that the WR position offers. In a 12-team PPR league we hosted last night, 12 of the first 24 picks were wideouts, with Moss leading the way as the FOURTH overall pick.
In our NFFC Classic and NBC Sports NFFC Primetime Leagues where WRs get 1 point per reception, Moss was a dominant force in 2007, outscoring everyone except Brady, Tony Romo and Peyton Manning. Moss scored an NFFC record 385.3 points for wide receivers through 16 weeks, or 24.0 points per game. No running back was within 45 points of Moss, whose ADP was 46 in the NFFC last year.
Three other wideouts, however, also topped 300 points with Reggie Wayne totaling 312.4, Terrell Owens 307 and Braylon Edwards 302.9. Those players currently have ADPs of 12 for Owens, 14 for Wayne and 23 for Edwards.
So even during a record-setting season, Moss isn't as dominant at his position as Brady was at QB. Brady scored an NFFC record 550.1 points, which were a whopping 120 more points than Romo. He was so dominant that only four QBs were within 180 points of Brady, or at least 11 points per game less than him for 16 games.
Nobody at the RB position was as dominant as Brady with LaDainian Tomlinson leading the way with 339.7 points, but his 21.2 points per game average was actually slightly lower than Brian Westbrook's 21.7 as Westy played one less game than LT2. The dropoff after those two RBs was almost five points per game per player, similar to the dropoff at WR for other WRs outside of the Top 5 compared to Moss.
With an emphasis on passing in today's game and with the Patriots committed to their wide-open attack, there's every reason to believe that Moss will be the top wide receiver in 2008. Yes, he comes with risk based on his lack of motivation at times, but failing to win a Super Bowl ring should be incentive enough to motivate Moss, Brady & Co. to go after a win every week once again. And with a weak strength-of-schedule, his numbers actually could improve this year.
In the four years of the NFFC, there has been only one running back or receiver to score more points than Moss did last year and that was LT2's 458.3 season in 2006. He had the best NFL season for any back and Moss had the best season ever for a receiver last year. Since 2004's debut NFFC season, only one other WR other than Moss in 2007 led the backs and wideouts in scoring and that was Muhsin Muhammad in 2004, who scored 330 points. The only other wideouts to top 300 NFFC points were Steve Smith with 338.8 points in 2005, Larry Fitzgerald 308 in 2005, Marvin Harrison with 302.6 in 2006, Joe Horn 301.8 in 2004 and the four wideouts in 2007.
The key to drafting Moss in the Top 10 is to make your position projections now and compare him to other wideouts and running backs. We've done our projections for Fantasy Sports Magazine and have concluded that Moss should top 300 points again with totals of 90 catches for 1,350 yards and 16 TDs. They are modest totals and would equal 315 NFFC points. We also have Reggie Wayne at around 300 points and Edwards just under that total, so the dominance is slightly lesser this year for Moss.
Still, with more depth at RB this year, it's obvious that you can anchor your franchise by selecting Moss with your first pick and still getting two good RBs after that. If he equals our projections, he's worth a Top 10 pick without a doubt. If he comes anywhere near last year's numbers, he's a worthy Top 6 pick. Do your own analysis and come up with your own conclusion, but through my research I'm convinced that a healthy, happy Randy Moss will more than justify that first round pick in 2008. And he might even lead your team to that league title you've always coveted.
Greg Ambrosius is the director of the National Fantasy Football Championship and the NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship. Go to Fantasyfootballchampionship.com for more details on how you can win a pair of $100,000 grand prizes. Ambrosius has also been the editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine since 1989, was elected to the Fantasy Sports Hall of Fame in 2002 and is now the president of the Fantasy Sports Association.









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