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Injury Analysis: The Walking Wounded
10:00 PM PDT on Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Each year millions of fantasy football owners have their championship dreams crushed by injuries to star players, but there are two sides to analyzing every injury. On one hand, there's no better place to find a fantasy bargain than flipping through the previous season's Injured Reserve list. On the other hand, there's no larger risk than drafting someone with a history of hospital visits. Some guys recover extremely well to become top producers after finishing the previous season on injured reserve, while others are affected by nagging injuries all season long, causing them to never truly reach their statistical potential. Deciphering what guys can efficiently regain full health and return to glory in the stat column gives a serious edge on the competition.
Monitoring the rehab process of last year's walking wounded is an important part of preparing for 2008 drafts. You'll want to target some of the following guys, while others may be best to let other owners take risks on.
Ronnie Brown, Dolphins RB - In just his third season, Brown was on pace for more than 2,200 total yards, 11 TDs and 89 catches prior to tearing his ACL in Week 7. The 26 year old would hands down be a top three fantasy pick in all leagues, and possibly the number one overall pick in PPR leagues this year if not for his injury. The good news - he's expected to be ready for training camp. The bad news - head coach Tony Sparano is talking about a potential 50-50 time share with 31 year old Ricky Williams, who looks good in his return from a torn pectoral. Brown is a solid RB2 in PPR leagues, but likely won't be the featured runner he was during the first seven games of 2007.
Deuce McAllister, Saints RB - Talk about devastating knee injuries, the 29 year old power back has suffered two of them in the past three seasons. In 2006, he returned from his first torn ACL (right knee) to rack up 1,057 yards and 10 TDs on 244 carries while sharing work with Reggie Bush. Similar digits were expected from him last year, but after a disappointing start, he tore his left ACL in Week 3. Fantasy owners who have already mentally crossed him off their lists need to think again. Even though Deuce had surgery to repair his torn ACL, and additional microfracture surgery to address the previous damage to his right knee, he's already returned to Saints practices and is reportedly running full speed during drills and pass routes, with no trouble planting and cutting on either knee. He's also exuding plenty of confidence about regaining his starting role. Eventually, these injuries will shorten his career, but fantasy owners looking for a solid late round value would be silly not to consider McAllister. He's expected to be fully healthy by training camp, and if he actually stays that way, he'll be a productive RB3 in 2008.
Chris Perry, Bengals RB - The 2004 first round pick has only been healthy enough to play in 22 total games during his four year career. He missed 10 games in 2006 with knee and ankle injuries, and was expected to return in 2007, but never did. The 6-0, 224 lb. 26 year old is explosive and versatile when healthy, and a much better receiver out of the backfield than Rudi Johnson. Perry is practicing fully at Organized Team Activities. 29 year old starter Rudi Johnson missed most of 2007 with hammy injuries, so a contributing role could be within Perry's grasp this year. He's someone to follow in deep formats, and could be an early waiver wire gem in most seasonal leagues.
Cadillac Williams, Buccaneers RB - After completely wrecking his ACL and MCL in Week 4, rumors were flying about Caddy's career being done. The Bucs believed it at some point, and have brought in veteran Warrick Dunn as an insurance policy. Now, just more than a month before training camp begins, the fourth year back from Auburn thinks there's a chance he may actually be ready to go by training camp. Head coach Jon Gruden has been impressed with his work ethic and is expected to give him every opportunity to return, and GM Bruce Allen has also recently commented that he believes Williams will definitely play this year. Williams' surgery was performed by the now famous Dr. James Andrews, who told him that he'd likely be out for between nine and 12 months. At this point, Williams is working on building up his right quad muscles by doing light squats, running stairs, jogging and full-speed pool running. If Caddy returns, it will obviously negatively affect Earnest Graham's value.
LaDainian Tomlinson, Chargers RB - The last time we saw LT, he was just a couple short plays into the biggest game of his life. Although the Chargers have said it's just a knee sprain, it's curious that he'd miss almost two full playoff games, handing the reigns to back-up Michael Turner. At any rate, Tomlinson apparently went through drills at full speed this past week and told media that he's 100 percent. Fantasy owners shouldn't worry about his left knee, but they should be concerned with the loss of fullback Lorenzo Neal.
Reggie Bush, Saints RB - The 23 year old missed the final four games of 2007 with a mystery knee injury. According to Bush, the emotional pain of missing four games was potentially more devastating than the injury itself. Bush should easily be 100 percent for the start of training camp, and he seems determined to start off 2008 strong.
Antonio Gates, Chargers TE - Gates' dynasty owners cringed when he went down with a severe toe injury in the AFC Wild Card game against the Titans. He tried to play against Indy and New England during the remainder of the playoffs, but clearly wasn't anywhere near full strength. Surgery ensued in February, and he's been slow to recover. Gates hasn't even begun running yet and isn't likely to be ready by training camp. While he may be healthy enough to play in Week 1, there's a chance that this toe injury will nag him for the entire 2008 season.
Todd Heap, Ravens TE - Heap missed most of 2007 with hamstring injuries, but has practiced with the team during the off-season and says he feels ready to return to full health in 2008. Expect him to always be slowed by a few nagging injuries, but he's a good bet to produce in Cam Cameron's TE friendly offense.
Marvin Harrison, Colts WR - After a Week 4 knee injury, which was later called a burst bursa sack, Colts head coach Tony Dungy told the media that 35 year old veteran Marvin Harrison would practice every Wednesday and be likely to play every Sunday. Unfortunately, for Harrison's owners, Dungy's promise only came true once, in a Week 7 three catch, 16 yard performance against the Jaguars. Harrison did return in the playoffs, but only caught two balls for 27 yards against the San Diego Chargers, fumbling prior to being benched. Colts president Bill Polian has remained positive about Harrison's health status for 2008, but fantasy owners should proceed with caution.
Brandon Marshall, Broncos WR - A mid-February living room wrestling match that involved a McDonald's bag and a television put a damper on Brandon Marshall's fantasy value heading into 2008. The third year 6'4" beast recorded 102 catches for 1,325 yards and seven TDs last year, but now has to recover from a sliced artery, nerve, vein, two tendons and three muscles in his right arm - and public criticism from QB Jay Cutler. Marshall recently had his cast removed, but will need to wear a sling for another month prior to starting rehab. This means there's no way he'll be ready for training camp, but could potentially play in Week 1, depending on how fast the artery heals, and how much muscle he's been able to rebuild throughout the rehab process.
Hines Ward, Steelers WR - Ward is a warrior that plays through injuries, but missed three games in 2007 with a partially torn meniscus in his right knee that required off-season surgery. He's taken it very easy on the knee this off-season, showing his face at Steelers mini-camp practices, but not participating in any drills. When it comes down to it, Ward should be fine to play in Week 1. As his body continues to wear down due to his physical style of play though, expect youngsters Santonio Holmes and Limas Sweed to make a larger impact in the stat column.
Javon Walker, Raiders WR - Walker will be 30 by the time kids are trick-or-treating this fall, and after being released by Denver this off-season, he absolutely needs to prove he can stay healthy. Walker only fully participated in two games last season, due to a nagging injury in his right knee, in which he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in 2005. Obviously Oakland was confident enough in his health to reward him with a six year $55 million contract - $16 million of which is guaranteed - in early March.
Deion Branch, Seahawks WR - Two years ago, the Seahawks gave the Patriots a first round pick for Branch, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy in Seattle. He missed five games with foot and ankle injuries in 2007, then went down with a torn ACL in the playoffs against Green Bay. Although the 28 year old has been very productive when healthy, there have been conflicting reports about the severity of his current knee injury and the status of his rehabilitation. In February, GM Tim Ruskell and head coach Mike Holmgren were talking about putting him on Injured Reserve in 2008, or at least the Physically Unable to Perform list - meaning he'd miss the first eight weeks of the season. Over the last couple weeks, their tune has changed, as they've said there's a possibility Branch could be ready by the first few weeks of the season. Seattle has also expressed confidence in the WR position, believing that Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram can get them through the time Branch misses. The fact that they didn't draft a WR, and Ben Obomanu is their third WR, bodes well for Branch's future value, but don't count on him contributing early on in 2008.
Matt Leinart, Cardinals QB - Leinart went down in Week 5 of his sophomore season with a broken collarbone, and veteran Kurt Warner stepped in and tossed the lights out in his absence. Regardless, Ken Whisenhunt has remained confident in Leinart as his starter of the future, and the future includes 2008. His collarbone is still healing, but he's looked solid throwing passes in recent practices, and should be fully healthy by training camp.
Matt Schaub, Texans QB - Houston's signal caller was as banged up as anyone in 2007, missing five games with multiple injuries - the most serious one on his non-throwing shoulder, on which he had surgery this off-season. Schaub has participated in non-contact practices this May, and is on target for the start of training camp. With new offensive line coach Alex Gibbs and first round tackle Duane Brown on board, Schaub should be better protected in 2008.
Jason Campbell, Redskins QB - Just as he was coming into his own as a starter, Campbell suffered a dislocated left knee cap that kept him out of the team's final three regular season games and Wild Card Playoff match-up against Seattle. The knee cap is healed, but apparently now he has a strained hamstring. Even if Campbell shakes off these nagging injuries in 2008, learning the complicated West Coast offense of new head coach Jim Zorn will likely keep him from being a solid fantasy starter.
Check out more of Paul's writing at nooffseason.com.









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