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NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship: Evaluating The RB-RB Approach
10:00 PM PDT on Wednesday, June 18, 2008
There used to be several universal truths in this world. Death. Taxes. Alyssa Milano could make anything worth watching and if you don't believe me I have four words for you:
"Embrace of the Vampire."
Meanwhile, in fantasy football, you always drafted a running back with your first two picks. Always.
The savvy fantasy owners have begun to alter their approach in recent years. They realize that going RB-RB to start your draft is no longer a guarantee of success. With more teams going to Running Back By Committee situations, there are fewer unquestioned three-down backs and there are also a larger number of running backs who can generate viable to much greater production on a weekly basis.
For example, two of the past three overall champions in the National Fantasy Football Championship have gone RB-WR to start their draft. Last year's champs Ryan Welch and Jeremy Jurwitz did go RB-RB to start but when their second-round pick, Thomas Jones, disappointed, it was their WR depth of Marques Colston (third round) and Plaxico Burress (fourth) which provided much greater fantasy returns during the year.
So what's a fantasy owner to do this year? It may depend on where you're slotted in the first round.
According to Average Draft Position data on MockDraftCentral.com, RBs continued to dominate the early portions of NFFC drafts. Of the first 20 picks, only six non-RBs were being taken (Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Reggie Wayne, Peyton Manning and Tony Romo). So NFFC owners picking in the 10-14 range of the first round appear more inclined at this time to go RB-RB with their first two picks.
That has resulted in a flurry of WRs being taken by the owners with one of the first nine picks in their draft. Wide receivers are currently dominating overall picks 20-30 in NFFC drafts. Consider:
T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ADP of 21)
Larry Fitzgerald (22)
Braylon Edwards (23)
Andre Johnson (25)
Chad Johnson (28)
Steve Smith (29)
Marques Colston (30)
So rather than reaching for a RB in the second round they may not like, NFFC owners with a Top 9 pick are leaning toward grabbing a strong WR option to pair with their first-round RB. That's a strategy I would employ as well and have in most of my drafts so far. But there is one RB who has me leaning back toward the RB-RB approach.
In a full PPR league, taking Bush in the second round is a strong move. I passed on doing that in our KP1 Expert League draft in May, taking Terrell Owens instead of Bush to team with Frank Gore, who I selected with the 10th pick in the first round. However, one month later in the FantasyGuru.com Experts Draft, I also had the 10th pick and after taking Ryan Grant in the first round, I went with Bush in the second and then grabbed a pair of WRs (Torry Holt and Plaxico Burress) in the third and fourth rounds.
In looking at the two teams, I prefer the approach I utilized in the FantasyGuru draft. While TO is a stud receiver, having Bush as my RB2 in a PPR league has tremendous value and potential in my opinion.
While Bush has been a disappointment as a runner in his first two seasons, the one thing he has proven without question is he'll gobble up the receptions. He caught 88 in his rookie season and had 73 in 12 games last year. So in his first two seasons, he has averaged 5.75 receptions per game. In a PPR league, that has huge value as a RB2 if you can get it.
So if you're in a full PPR league or an NFFC league (which awards .5 points/reception for RBs), taking Bush in the second makes RB-RB a very viable strategy this year. But if Bush is off the board, I would lean toward taking one of the top WRs in the second round. Given the depth at the RB position this year, you can go RB-WR and still find a quality RB2 in the third or maybe even the fourth round. Among the options there in NFFC drafts so far have been:
Ronnie Brown (ADP of 31)
Maurice Jones-Drew (32)
Earnest Graham (33)
Michael Turner (35)
Edgerrin James (38)
Darren McFadden (52)
Thomas Jones (54)
With RBs like that available in the third and fourth rounds, it's become easier to shift away from the hardcore RB-RB approach which has defined fantasy football drafts for so long. Toss in Tom Brady's emergence as a probable first-round pick and this year, more than any in recent memory, we could see a lot of variety in the early rounds of drafts.
All of that is making the 2008 season one of the most fascinating to watch from a fantasy perspective.
Tom Kessenich is the event director of the National Fantasy Football Championship and the NBC Sports Fantasy Football Championship. Go to Fantasyfootballchampionship.com for more details on how you can win a pair of $100,000 grand prizes. Kessenich has also been the managing editor of Fantasy Sports Magazine since 1999.









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