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The Week Ahead: Bombs Away!

10:00 PM PST on Friday, November 21, 2008

Ryan Knaus

Welcome to The Week Ahead. The information below is relevant for Week Five in the NBA-Monday, November 24th through Sunday the 30th. Teams are listed in order of games played, starting with the lowest. That is particularly helpful for leagues with weekly lineups...for everyone else there are quick hits galore. Read on!

Also...if you haven't subscribed to Rotoworld's NBA Season Pass, what are you waiting for! It is chock-full of exclusive columns, updated rankings, customizable roster reports, schedule grids and everything else you need to dominate your league.

Three-game teams: Hawks, Celtics, Bulls, Mavericks, Pistons, Clippers, Lakers, Timberwolves, Hornets, Knicks, Raptors, Wizards

Four-game teams: Bobcats, Cavaliers, Nuggets, Warriors, Rockets, Pacers, Grizzlies, Heat, Bucks, Nets, Thunder, Magic, 76ers, Suns, Trail Blazers, Spurs, Kings, Jazz


Three-game teams:

Knicks
The most important factor for the Knicks this week is the fallout from the Jamal Crawford-for-Al Harrington trade. Right now it's hard to predict exactly what will happen because all the pieces are not yet in place. Zach Randolph might still be traded (to the Mavericks or, more likely, to the Clippers), which would probably mean Harrington starts right away. His back injury is widely believed to be a sham designed to plausibly keep him inactive, so hopefully he'll be active as soon as the deal is finalized. Nate Robinson seems like a big winner in this trade so far --already posting solid stats, he could concievably move into the starting lineup at shooting guard. The problem there is A) that gives NY a small backcourt, B) Robinson has been very effective off the bench, and C) it's possible that Cuttino Mobley (or another shooting guard) will be acquired in a deal for Randolph. Wilson Chandler could move to small forward, shifting Quentin Richardson to shooting guard or to the bench...again, there are so many variables that it's best to just stay glued to RW for breaking news on the trades and their fallout.

Hawks
After a high-flying start to the season, injuries have clipped the Hawks' wings. Josh Smith's sprained ankle has improved and he is now listed as day-to-day...great news for his owners, but he's still a very risky start this week. Al Horford is a game-time decision on Friday, so check his status again this weekend before making any final determinations. Unfortunately, even with Smith and Horford both sidelined, the Hawks aren't offering any substitute big men with reliable value. Zaza Pachulia blew up for 18 rebounds and four assists on Wednesday, but scored just four points on 1-of-4 shooting...he's a risky start on Friday, and with Smith and Horford on the verge of returning, I'd avoid him in a three-game Week 5. Marvin Williams' had a breakout game on Wednesday (21 points, 14 rebounds, four assists, two steals and one block) and should be steady all season -- just don't expect huge lines once Smith and Horford are both back. One bonus stat...Williams is shooting an unbelievable 57% from downtown, and has scored in double figures in nine consecutive games.

Celtics
The Celtics are pretty much maintaining the status quo, sitting atop the Atlantic division with a tidy 11-2 record. The starting five still has consistent value, but the bench is tough to rely on in fantasy leagues. Kendrick Perkins is averaging 2.1 blocks per game, but just 7.5 rebounds and 46% free throw shooting (fortunately he only attempts 1.7 per game). Tony Allen is averaging under 20 minutes per game and won't have value in average leagues while Paul Pierce and Ray Allen are both healthy.

Bulls
The Bulls suffered an embarrasing loss to the Trail Blazers on Thursday, getting into garbage time early and posting one of the worst team-wide fantasy nights of the season. Fortunately, there is much to be optimistic about. Ben Gordon has been great since entering the starting lineup, outside of a few rough shooting nights, and neither Thabo Sefolosha nor Larry Hughes are legitimately challenging him for the starting gig. Hughes recently complained about his playing time (just under 19 minutes per game) and most owners probably wish he had never returned from his shoulder injury. Avoid him and Sefolosha, if at all possible. Keep a close eye on Andres Nocioni -- his points fluctuate, but he's getting a steady 25 minutes per game and hits enough three-pointers to keep around in most leagues. The Bulls frontcourt rotation is still a tired old carousel, spinning faster and faster without going anywhere, huge men climbing on only to jump off moments later, carnival music blaring and maniacal horses laughing as they bob up and down on their worn brass poles. Actually that's just a recurring nightmare I used to have, but you get the point (maybe). Drew Gooden is mediocrity incarnate (his sub-30 minutes aren't helping), Tyrus Thomas has been plain awful (impressive steals and blocks notwithstanding...he's shooting 29% from the field) and Joakim Noah hasn't scored in double-figures all season. Aaron Gray has played 20+ minutes in two straight games, but is hardly worth mentioning. Also keep in mind Luol Deng is battling a groin injury and isn't a sure thing for next week...hopefully he'll play on Friday and give us more confidence.

Mavericks
The Mavs are rumored to be involved in the Zach Randolph sweepstakes, but it doesn't sound likely that he'll end up in Dallas. Josh Howard's injured wrist has healed, only to be followed by an injured ankle. X-rays showed no structural damage, so he is day-to-day and should be used with caution this week...check back soon for an update. Gerald Green is dealing with a sore back, but even when starting he's not getting enough minutes to be worth owning in average leagues. Jason Terry continues to alternate between starting and coming off the bench, but is producing almost equally in both roles. Jason Kidd has been putting up impressive numbers everywhere but the scoring column...unfortunately his 45% shooting and 2.5 steals per game are probably too good to be true.

Pistons
The Pistons are still adjusting to the presence of Allen Iverson and the new offensive mentality he brings...not to mention Tayshaun Prince's transistion to a point-forward. Prince should have increased fantasy value for the rest of the season, though Rip Hamilton has taken a step backwards on offense without Billups delivering the ball exactly where Rip likes it as he motors his way around the court. He'll get back on track, but will have fewer 20-point nights than in the past. Amir Johnson's run as a sleeper has officially ended, while Kwame Brown's move into the starting lineup makes him an intriguing, but dubious, source of rebounds and blocks. Brown is not playing anywhere near 30 minutes a game, so feel free to ignore him unless you're in a deep league. Rodney Stuckey continues to struggle and is safe to cut...he's shooting 38% from the field and has made one three-pointer all season.

Clippers
The Clippers' bid to acquire Zach Randolph could change things in a hurry. The proposed deal would be Randolph for Cuttino Mobley and Tim Thomas. Such a deal would immediately improve the prospects of Ricky Davis and Eric Gordon, so keep an eye on both. It would also complicate the frontcourt rotation. Would Randolph start, moving Marcus Camby to the bench? That seems like the most likely result, as Camby is capable of filling in at both power forward and center. One interesting aside (disclaimer: this is purely speculation) is that this gives L.A. more freedom to explore trades involving Chris Kaman. If, for instance, they moved Kaman to the Bobcats (who covet him, as they desperately need a true center) for Gerald Wallace, they would still have a reliable frontcourt. But that's all speculation, as I said. For now...Baron Davis is struggling (36% shooting, 1.8 steals per game) and has to be getting more frustrated by the day...hopefully he'll continue to play like the playoffs are a realistic possibility. UPDATE: The Randolph trade is official.

Lakers
The Lakers depth appears to be hurting their fantasy value...let's start with Kobe Bryant. Compared to last season, Kobe is averaging fewer minutes (from 39 to 34), points (28 to 24), three-pointers (1.8 to 1.0), FT attempts (9.1 to 7.2), rebounds (6.3 to 5.1) and assists (5.4 to 3.9). That's obviously a big concern for his owners, and with the Lakers record at 9-1, there's no reason to think it will change any time soon. Pau Gaol is averaging a team-high 35 minutes per game and has been one of the Lakers steadiest fantasy players. Andrew Bynum's 2.8 blocks per game are anchoring his value, but owners need more than 10.7 points and 8.7 rebounds in 29 minutes. He shot 64% from the field in an abbreviated season last year, and I'm anticipating a huge second half of the season for Bynum. Lamar Odom is showing signs of life as he adjusts to his bench role, but will remain inconsistent while coming off the bench. Derek Fisher and Vladimir Radmanovic are deep-league specials, both contibuting little more than solid three-point totals.

Timberwolves
The Timberwolves are a pretty thin team from a fantasy perspective. Al Jefferson has been rock solid, as expected, averaging 22.6 points on 52% shooting, 10.3 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 0.8 steals and 1.7 blocks. Mike Miller has been efficient (52% field goals, 43% from downtown) but a few more field goal attempts wouldn't hurt (averaging 9.4 per game). Randy Foye has resumed starting, so hopefully you didn't cut him for (forgettable) Sebastian Telfair. Foye's 36% shooting hasn't won him many admirers, but he'll pick it up before long -- in the meantime, his 3.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists allow him to eke out some value. Beyond that the T-Wolves are a fantasy grab-bag...Ryan Gomes, Kevin Love and Corey Brewer are the only other players averaging more than 20 minutes, and none of them are scoring 10 points per game. Hang onto Love if you want to, but I'm unconvinced that he'll surface with much more value than he's shown thus far.

Hornets
Chris Paul is still justifying all those owners who picked him number one overall, averaging a ridiculous 20.7 points on 50% field goals and 86% free throws, 5.0 rebounds, 11.9 assists and 3.1 steals. The scary part is that those numbers could actually improve once the Hornets offense kicks into high gear, which it hasn't yet (reflected in their disappointing 5-5 record). David West's rebounds and blocks are both down from last season, making him a decent buy-low candidate. Peja Stojakovic is shooting a career low 37% from the field...he'll get better as the season wears on, but his lack of versatility and history of injuries is enough to keep me away. James Posey started the season on fire but has since cooled off -- consider him a bottom-rung option suitable for threes, a few steals and not much else.

Raptors
Chris Bosh's season averages say more than I ever could -- 26 points per game on 54% field goals and 81% free throws, 11 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.7 steals and 0.9 blocks per game. He won't need a goofy YouTube video to earn him an All-Star appearance this season. Jermaine O'Neal has been rebounding and blocking shots at a high level, but clearly isn't the offensive player he once was. He lacks explosion around the rim, and Raptors fans lament the fact that he seems to be constantly having his shot blocked by more athletic big men. Jose Calderon is back from his hamstring injury...maybe not 100% healthy, but as long as he's starting for the Raptors he should be starting for your team. Andrea Bargnani's move into the starting five gives him obvious fantasy value, though beware his relentless inconsistency. There's also a rumor that the Raptors offered Bargnani to the Warriors for Al Harrington, so a trade isn't outside the realm of possibility. Jamario Moon's value was crushed by his demotion to the bench -- I was optimistic that he could sustain value as a reserve, but he's not the sixth-man and should be cut in most leagues at this point.

Wizards
The Wizards two veterans, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison, are as steady as their owners can ask for...unfortunately for Washington, that's about the only thing they've got going right now. Even coach Eddie Jordan seems to admit that his team doesn't have the talent to compete right now. He recently shifted rookie center JaVale McGee into the starting lineup, hoping for some sort of spark. McGee had five points, five rebounds and zero blocks in his first start, but has enough potential to be worth stashing on your bench. Etan Thomas didn't have value in the first place, so go ahead and forget about him. Nick Young is solid but limited off the bench...there's really not much to talk about in Washington right now. Oh yeah, Gilbert Arenas said recently that he will return in early January, and should be ready to play 40 minutes per game. Uh huh, sure.

Four-game teams:
Warriors
Hello, three-pointers! The Warriors just traded for the highest-volume three-point shooter in the NBA, so get ready. What this means for Golden State's rotation isn't quite clear...though Anthony Morrow moving to the bench is the most likely result. Expect Crawford and Stephen Jackson to split duties at point guard, with Andris Biedrins continuing his domination as the Warriors only legitimate big man. Kelenna Azubuike is battling in mildly sprained knee-he is questionable for Friday's game, so double-check his status before using him next week.

Bobcats
Simply put, the Bobcats are a mess. Leading scorer Jason Richardson is still out following "minor" exploratory knee surgery. He should be back sometime next week, but there are no guarantees, so keep him sidelined. Neither Adam Morrison nor Matt Carroll had done much in J-Rich's absence, so don't expect them to have any value once he gets back. D.J. Augustin has been promoted to the starting lineup, though I imagine that once Richardson returns Augustin will go back to the bench. Nevertheless, he's worth watching very closely as he's obviously a favorite of coach Larry Brown. Alexis Ajinca has also been named a starter, but it's too soon to make any declarations about his value, or lack thereof. Sean May isn't in shape, and won't be any time soon...hopefully he's not owned in many, or any, leagues right now. One intriguing possibility is the Bobcats trading for a center (as I write this, the Clippers trade for Zach Randolph has become official.could deal for Chris Kaman be far behind?), which would move Emeka Okafor to power forward. Stay tuned.

Cavaliers
As usual, it's the LeBron show in Cleveland...though nowadays every amazing performance is followed by a round of questions about his future free agency. All owners need to know is that LeBron the shooting a career-high 77% from the free throw line.everything else is automatic. Mo Williams is starting to get comfortable-though still sporting a lousy assist-to-turnover ratio (4.7-to-2.9), he's made 96.8% of his free throws and is averaging 2.0 three pointers per game. Delonte West continues to be solid at shooting guard, making Sasha Pavlovic and Wally Szczerbiak irrelevant in the process. Ben Wallace is fine if all you need is a few rebounds (7.2), steals (1.1) and blocks (1.7).

Nuggets
Though unsurprising, Chauncey Billups' production has barely changed since joining the Nuggets. His assists are down slightly but should improve as he becomes comfortable in the system. What is surprising is Denver's sudden emphasis on defense. It is negatively impacting J.R. Smith, as Smith's aggravated owners are well aware...Dahntay Jones is a superior defender and is unlikely to surrender his starting job to the spotty defense of Smith any time soon. Hang in there if you can, since Smith didn't get hot until the second half of last season, but if you have to cut him loose it's understandable. Linas Kleiza posted a big line last Tuesday (25 points on 5-of-9 field goals and 13-of-15 free throws), but is too unreliable for use in most leagues.

Rockets
The 'Great Injury Scare of Week 4' has passed without incident, though Yao Ming missed a game and Tracy McGrady's owners were reminded why they were able to land him in the sixth round. There aren't too many unknowns in Houston-Rafer Alston is still the starting point guard and Aaron Brooks is too poor a play-maker to replace him. Luis Scola and Carl Landry continue to trade off decent nights, though Scola clearly has the edge in production. Ron Artest is shooting a horrendous 34% from the field, bound to improve (if only slightly). T-Mac recently complained about not getting enough touches on offense...this just a few days after claiming his knee was "back to square one" and that he needed to "shut it down" until further notice. Yeah, give that guy an increased workload.

Pacers
T.J. Ford posted his worst line of the season on Tuesday, shooting 3-of-10 from the field with two rebounds and two assists. It was revealed later that he was recovering from dizziness after being hit in the head by Derrick Rose, causing his neck to snap back. That's very scary for Ford's owners, who are acquainted with his medical condition that causes a narrowing of the spine. Fortunately, it sounds like he'll be fine going forward. Big news on the Mike Dunleavy front -- we finally got word that he has been working out and looks healthy, with plenty of lift when he jumps. Hopefully that knee injury won't linger throughout the season, but his owners would be thrilled just to see him on the court. The Pacers have toned down their small-ball approach, running the offense through the big men at times, resulting in some nice lines for Rasho Nesterovic, Troy Murphy and Jeff Foster...expect each of those guys to have big nights followed by duds.

Grizzlies
Rudy Gay is starting to rediscover his jumpshot, which is terrific news for his owners. It looks like he's figuring out how to co-exist with fellow scorer O.J. Mayo. Marc Gasol is steady but, as I said last week, his monster line from early in the season looks like a fluke. Hakim Warrick had his first 20 & 10 game of the season last week, but beware his notorious inconsistency. I think he'll overtake rookie Darrell Arthur for the starting job before long, but could be wrong. Arthur is averaging just 6.6 points on 38% shooting, but is getting it done in the hustle department, racking up 6.6 rebounds, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks in just 23 minutes per game. Neither Mike Conley nor Kyle Lowry has stepped up to command 30+ minutes at point guard, leaving owners to grasp at straws and hope that Conley figures out how to be aggressive (or at least how to make more than 1/3 of his shots).

Heat
Mario Chalmers has started to fade, thanks largely to the strong play of Chris Quinn off the bench. Quinn is shooting 53% from downtown, making 1.8 treys per game in just 22 minutes...useful as a specialist, especially in deeper leagues. Shawn Marion has shown signs of increased productivity, mainly on the offensive end. It looks like Miami is making a concentrated effort to involve him more, great news for his owners. Michael Beasley's production has dropped dramatically in the past few games, and his owners have real cause for concern-not only is he getting into foul trouble, coach Eric Spoelstra has routinely benched him in the fourth quarter because Beasley, simply put, is not a good defender. It might be too late to sell-high, but it's worth a shot.

Bucks
Michael Redd seems like he's been day-to-day with an ankle injury for the past month. Yes, he is still day-to-day...and no, I don't know if that means he'll actually play this week. Charlie Villanueva (hamstring) is also day-to-day, giving Luc Richard Mbah a Moute another chance to be a strong contributor. The Prince has struggled with his FG% lately, shooting a miserable 20-of-59 in the last six games. For a while he was leading all rookies in FG%, so I'm not convinced that he's a chronic brick-layer just yet. Charlie Bell and Ramon Sessions have each posted nice lines in the past few weeks, but are stepping on each others' toes when it comes to playing time...the return of Redd will only make it that much worse, so don't rely on either guy in the long-term.

Nets
If Josh Boone doesn't return from his ankle injury soon, rookie Brook Lopez may very well supplant him as the every-day starter. Boone was inconsistent and a horrible FT shooter to begin with, so don't hesitate to cut him loose. There isn't much to get excited about in NJ...Vince Carter and Devin Harris are keeping the team competitive, Yi Jianlian plays well in spurts and Jarvis Hayes and Bobby Simmons are essentially worthless in fantasy leagues. Ryan Andersen has been efficient (1.3 three pointers on 63% from downtown) and should be watched very closely...any increase in playing time could give him value in average leagues.

Thunder
Wednesday's 20-point blowout loss to the Clippers showed just how bad the Thunder really are, and no help is on the way. It's almost depressing seeing the supportive, enthusiastic OKC crowds quieted by their own team's ineptitude. Kevin Durant hasn't (yet) blossomed into the roto-stud many were predicting, and Jeff Green is still walking the fine line between versatile contributor and inconsistent headache. The frontcourt is still a mess of minute-shares, and we're biding our time until Russell Westbrook takes over full-time for Earl Watson. Hopefully it'll happen sooner rather than later.

Magic
If you want to buy-low on Hedo Turkoglu or Rashard Lewis, it's not too late. Both guys are still shooting under 40%, a trend bound to reverse itself before long. Mickael Pietrus has been productive in just 27 minutes per game (14.5 points, 1.9 three pointers, 3.8 rebounds), but he won't continue to make 89% of his free throws or 50% of his field goals over the course of a season. Orlando's backup shooting guard continues to be irrelevant, whether it's Keith Bogans, Courtney Lee or J.J. Redick.

76ers
Not much new in Philadelphia, though they are at least starting to win some games. Samuel Dalembert's owners had a scare recently when Mo Cheeks severely reduced his playing time for a lack of effort, but Sammy bounced back with a strong 13 point, 16 rebound effort and looks to have righted the ship. Keep a close eye on his health, however, as he's been battling swelling and soreness in his knee since training camp. Lou Williams is struggling this season. He claims to have never experienced a shooting slump before, but he's definitely in one now-shooting just 36% from the field 26% from downtown in 18 minutes per game. Keep an eye on him in deep leagues, because he's a better shooter than that and the Sixers consider him a key to having a successful season.

Suns
Shaq has had occasional dominant games, balanced out by nights of abysmal FT shooting and sudden DNPs. Amare hasn't come close to recapturing the glory of his 49-point exposion. Steve Nash is having a sub-par season and is now dealing with back pain...keep a close eye on his status over the weekend. Matt Barnes is solid but needs closer to 32 minutes per game to be a great option. Grant Hill is clearly on the decline, and only has occasional flashes of value, mostly when Barnes was sidelined. Leandro Barbosa has missed the past four games after the death of his mother...he had just begun to heat up, so don't cut him yet.

Blazers
Greg Oden has finally emerged with a few big games, giving his owners what they were hoping for on draft day...rebounds, blocks and lots of entertainment in the process. His return partially explains the struggles of LaMarcus Aldridge, but not entirely. Aldridge is a career 48% shooter but he's shooting below 44% this season. He is a career 74% free throw shooter, but his shooting just 63% this season. His points have dipped as a consequence, as have his rebounds, despite playing the same amount of minutes. He's far too talented for these struggles to persist, so target him as a buy-low option while the opportunity still exists.

Spurs
Manu is back! Well, almost...he has resumed practicing and hopes to return as soon as Monday. Check RW this weekend for the latest updates. George Hill has had a few nice games with Tony Parker sidelined, but Jacque Vaughn is a threat to his minutes and neither guy is a sure bet, even in a four-game week. The Spurs continue to juggle their starting lineup, but regardless of who starts, Bruce Bowen and Ime Udoka don't have value in average leagues. Michael Finley can be used in a pinch, but only if you're getting desperate.

Kings
The Kings are another team with the fluid starting lineup, thanks to Kevin Martin's ankle injury. Donte Greene played well in his first NBA start, and is expected to start again on Friday. Just don't think that he'll have long-term value...Kevin Martin is day-to-day and will displace him immediately upon his return. Jason Thompson has been a revelation in the starting five, and could very well keep his starting gig even after Mikki Moore returns from his ankle injury. Spencer Hawes is playing great in limited minutes off the bench, but should only resume starting if Brad Miller gets hurt or traded. A trade isn't out of the question later in the season (once the Kings' have lost enough games to rule out the playoffs), so don't give up on Hawes.

Jazz
If you're staying afloat despite Deron Williams' lingering ankle injury, congratulations. He is day-to-day, but it's hard to say when exactly he'll be able to return. Keep him sidelined next week unless some positive news breaks this weekend. Carlos Boozer is the latest injured player, and he is also day-to-day with a quad injury. Mehmet Okur put up a dud in his first game back from a personal leave, but it's safe to plug him into your lineups for the week ahead...I guarantee he won't go 0-of-3 in 20 minutes again. Finally there is the emergence of Andrei Kirilenko, whose pesky defense earned the Jazz a win over the Bucks last week. I'm leery of what happens to his value once Deron Williams returns, but for now he's playing like the AK-47 of old.

Phew...that's all I've got for now! Check RW this weekend, because late-breaking injuries and trades can drastically change the fantasy landscape overnight, as we all know too well. Good luck this week!

Despite residing in Portland, Ryan Knaus is a huge Sonics fan. He is in his first season writing fantasy hoops for Rotoworld.com and longs for the days of Shawn Kemp and Xavier McDaniel.

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