Republicans will trim state election margins late, poll says

A new poll commissioned by KING 5 shows Democrats have the lead in Washington state.

A new SurveyUSA Election poll commissioned by KING 5 indicates Democrats will have a good night next Tuesday, with Democratic candidates significantly ahead in the early votes.

However, Republicans will likely trim the margins among later voters, according to the poll conducted Monday through Wednesday. 

In the presidential race, Hillary Clinton maintains a significant lead with Washington State voters who have already returned their ballots by 22 points. However, the contest is “effectively even,” among likely voters who have not yet voted.

The two groups combined give Clinton a lead of 50 percent to Donald Trump’s 38 percent. Just 9 percent of voters surveyed said they support third party candidates.

In the governor’s race, Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Inslee leads Republican challenger Bill Bryant 50 percent to 43 percent. Similar to the presidential race, Inslee has a double digit lead in the early vote. However, Bryant leads among likely voters who have not yet voted by 7 points, according to the poll.

The poll also indicates Bryant leads 2:1 in red-leaning Eastern Washington. However, Inslee leads by 23 points in metropolitan Seattle, the population center of the state. Inslee also leads with women, suburban women and young voters. Bryant leads with rural men and holds a narrow lead among seniors. 

Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray leads Republican Chris Vance by twelve points, 53 percent to 41 percent.

The SURVEYUSA Election poll also finds the statewide minimum wage initiative I-1433 poised to pass, leading 56 percent to 38 percent.

Intiative 732, the carbon tax, tax swap measure, is likely to be defeated, according to the poll, which found conservatives opposing the measure by 7:1 and Democrats split over the initiative.

Methodology

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Washington adults between Oct. 31 and Nov. 2. The margin of error is +/- 3.8. The poll was conducted after FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress regarding the Clinton email server investigation. However, no questions were asked about Comey or the letter’s impact on the race.

Copyright 2016 KING


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