Boeing's biggest jet may ride recovery wave

EVERETT, Wash. - The first 747-8 Intercontinental has now rolled out of Boeing's immense Everett Plant. It's the largest plane Boeing's ever built.

The 747-8 is 18-feet longer, and has a 13-foot wider wingspan than the 747-400 it replaces... and more than three quarters of the planes on order have no seats or windows for passengers. They're freighters - all cargo planes with a nose that swings up and out of the way to accommodate long loads, and big swing up doors on the side.

And, Boeing says it's 16-percent more efficient than its predecessor.

While all this talk about cargo makes some people's eyes glaze over, what's happening in Everett is  keeping production humming and people employed.  Cargo holds a lot of promise, and not just for the 747, which has been in production since the late 1960s.

Last year, Boeing delivered its first 777 freighter to Air France.

For decades, most freighters were older converted passenger planes, but not any more - at least when it comes to the larger freighters ranging from the 777 to the Russian build AN 1.

"Sixty percent are now new airplanes," said Tom Crabtree, Boeing's regional director for Airline Revenue Analysis for the Cargo Market.

But it's what's  happening in the freight business that's showing encouraging signs for the economy.

According to the Seattle Based Air Cargo Management group that tracks the air freight industry, shipments eastbound out of Asia are up significantly in the last three weeks alone.

Boeing says Korean Air Cargo was up 33-percent in September alone, and 24-percent in October. Much of that was Christmas goods heading to North America.  For the rest of the world, which saw worrisome declines first in 2007, then  dramatic declines in 2008, they're feeling what may be the bottom of a slowdown.

Crabtree says his research finds that the freight business hasn't been this bad for any  mode since the darkest years of the Great Depression.

 But as a sign of things to come, consider the bet Billionaire Warren Buffet placed in recent weeks. Buffet bought the rest of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad. Buffet has long said that if you want to see the first signs of an economic recovery, look at what's being shipped. Crabtree says the air freight market isn't much  different.