EVERETT, Wash. - Boeing's announcement Friday confirming another delay in delivering the 787 to Japan's All Nippon Airways to at least February of 2011, now pushes out the total delay to nearly three years.
But while we've tended to look at that impact in terms of how it affects Boeing, it's not like the airlines simply shrug their shoulders and say "call me when they're ready."
"It is choreography," says John Monroe about the complex process of building and delivering it to carriers. He was in the job of delivering Boeing's big 777 to airlines from 1998 until he retired in 2003 as Director of 777 Program Management. Meeting customer delivery deadlines was part of that job.
Monroe now directs the Aerospace Program for the Economic Development Council of Snohomish County. While Monroe says there was the occasional hitch, the 777 program was considered an on-time program.
"It's not like buying a $20,000 to $30,000 car," says Monroe.
Monroe rattled off a long list of impacts late deliveries can cause. Take pilot training. Line pilots from Japan's ANA are due in Renton next week to begin a 21-day training program to learn how to fly the Dreamliner. There are also training programs for flight attendants and mechanics. If the delays become too long, that could force pilots and flight attendants to require some retraining. That costs money.
When an airline brings in new planes, what does it do with the old ones? The old jets, many expected to be older Boeing 767s, don't just fly to retirement in the desert. Most of them are committed somewhere else. Monroe says many old planes are converted into freighters. If they have to stay in passenger service longer than expected, the airline risks missing deadline to get those planes to a modification center to be converted. If the plane is on lease from a leasing company, the carrier could end up paying more to hang onto the plane longer. And if the plane is being sold or leased to another airline, what does that do?
"It's a huge domino effect, says Monroe.
Even passengers could feel the impact. You can buy a ticket up to a year in advance. Let's say you made a seat selection on-line for your first exciting flight on a 787, but ended up on the old 767 with fewer seats and a different seat layout. You could be stuck with a seat you'd rather avoid. The Dreamliner has 30 more seats than the typical 767 it replaces. What if you had a ticket for one of those seats? You get the idea.
Then there's the finance side, namely, the cost. Does an airline take delivery of spare engines and other parts just to have them taking up space in a warehouse for an airplane it is still waiting to fly? That's a lot of money tied up earning nothing.
Boeing says it is paying compensation to airlines impacted by the delays. That is expected to cost Boeing billions of dollars. But Monroe is convinced the 787 is a winner and will save the carrier money in the form of fuel and maintenance savings. Boeing is hoping the plane's appeal to passengers with bigger windows and a swoopy interior will keep those planes full and raking in cash.
Monroe says despite the heartburn, airlines will be back for more.
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