SEATTLE - It's hard to forget last winter, with its sub-freezing temperatures, icy commutes, flooding and a giant wind storm. On Thursday, the National Weather Service made its best guess as to what we might face.

The culprit this season is likely to be a mild to moderate La Nina. Simply put, it's a condition in the Pacific Ocean that affects our weather, in part by shifting the jet stream.

The forecast for this winter? Since it's a La Nina winter that likely means more rain. That could also translate into more lowland snow, wind storms, and the likelihood of average winter temperatures with an equal chance they could be colder or even warmer.

"You've got to take a lot of this with a grain of salt. But statistically speaking we stand a better chance of seeing more snow than during Neutral years," said Kirby Cook with the National Weather Service.

So how accurate are these kids of forecasts? First of all, by definition they are not designed to be precise. For example, they can't say there will be a big wind storm on such and such a date in January, or we'll have icy streets in the middle of December.

"When nature roars, there's not a lot you can do," King County Executive Ron Sims said last December, when he and Gov. Chris Gregoire were touring the massive wind storm devastation east of Seattle.

Power lines came down and the lights were out for weeks in some places.

It wasn't supposed to be that way. Last year was forecast as an El Nino year, a year that was supposed to be warmer than normal, with fewer storms.  Instead, we had some nightmare commutes and big floods.

"I think it's important to take this for what it is. It's just an outlook. It's just a heads up for what's possible this winter," said Cook.

The good news for skiers is that La Nina should bring a good snow pack.