04:20 PM PDT on Tuesday, September 21, 2004

By SUSAN WYATT / KING5.com

By Gerry Sheehan Dickerson Point in South Puget Sound

SEATTLE - With the first day of fall upon us, thoughts turn to the winter months ahead. Will the Northwest experience a repeat of last winter's big snowstorm?

The National Weather Service said last month that a mild El Nino is developing in the Pacific Ocean. In El Nino years, the jet stream typically shifts to the south, giving California some of our stormy weather, and leaving us with a warmer winter.

But NWS meteorologist Johnny Burg says this is not expected to be a big weather event in the Northwest.

"There will be no extremes of weather," he said.

The storm in early January of this year brought 3 to 8 inches of snow to the Seattle, Tacoma and Olympia areas. Hardest hit was the Kitsap Peninsula, which got 4 to 10 inches of snow. In the Willamette Valley in Oregon, freezing rain and sleet came after a snowfall of 6-10 inches.

KING Snow covers the Evergreen Point Floating Bridge during a storm in Jan. 2004.

The snow followed atypically cold temperatures around the Puget Sound area. The observation station at Sand Point in Seattle recorded lows of 21 degrees for two days before the storm descended on the region.

KING 5 meteorologist Meeghan Black says last year was considered normal for the area. The storm was no surprise.

"We normally do get snow in Seattle," she said. "It's not unusual."

This year, she said, expect a wetter, windier fall and a warmer, windier winter.

While the current warming indicates the early stages of an El Nino, the conditions have not spread oceanwide. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration agency will continue to monitor the situation in the tropical Pacific.

Black said while the early indications were that an El Nino is developing, the jury's still out. "It's a crapshoot," she said.

El Nino vs. La Nina

El Nino is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as compared to La Nina, which is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures.

In El Nino years, the jet stream typically shifts to the south, giving California some of our stormy weather, while we enjoy warmer temperatures.

With La Nina, winter temperatures are cooler than normal in the Northwest, with wetter conditions. Mountain snowpacks are usually good, which is good news for skiiers and water managers. The record-setting snowpack of 1,140 inches on Mount Baker in Northwest Washington occurred in 1998-99, a La Nina year.

It's Weather Radio awareness month

Gov. Gary Locke has proclaimed September to be " Weather Radio Awareness Month" and urged state residents to increase their knowledge and awareness of emergency preparedness actions they can take.

NOAA Weather Radio system

Weather radio receivers operate like smoke detectors, silently monitoring, and then alerting you to a warning message and providing more time to respond to the event.

"They are designed for an all hazards warning system," said Ted Buehner, warning coordination meteorologist at the Seattle Weather Forecast Office.

That means it can be used not only for immediate flood and weather-related events, but also hazards such as tsunamis, volcanic activity, hazardous releases, AMBER child abduction alerts, and secondary hazards from terrorism and earthquakes.

"NOAA weather radios save lives for the cost of a pair of shoes," said Ted Buehner, warning coordination meteorologist at the Seattle Weather Forecast Office. "We want to make NOAA weather radios as common as smoke detectors in homes."