SEATTLE — Expect to see warmer-than-average and possibly drier conditions this winter, due to an El Niño pattern that has developed in the Pacific.

Scientists at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center said the conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are likely to continue into early 2007. For the Northwest this means overall warmer temperatures this winter, but they may be too slight to be noticed, said KING 5 meteorologist Rich Marriott.

However, there’s potential concern for not enough snow pack, which could affect the water supply later, Marriott said.

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Meager snowpack forced ski resorts to close in 2004.

"It's discouraging from the point of view of water supply and forest health and stream flows for fish and that sort of thing," said Nick Bond, a research meterologist at the University of Washington.

Bond is an expert on how ocean temperature changes can affect our weather, and said so far it's not anywhere near the strength of the severe 1997-98 El Nino.

There's also less change of seeing snow in Seattle but it's hard to tell yet whether the warmer conditions spell bad news for ski resorts, Marriott said.

“Ski conditions depend on how snow falls, it depends on getting a base in place -- that’s a timing issue you can’t call,” he said.

He explained that two years ago, when the ski season lasted just a few weeks,  there was actually enough snow for a base but it got washed away by rain. If the reverse had happened conditions would have been okay.

However, if skiers are looking for powder, they probably won’t see a lot.

“Groomed slopes will probably be okay unless we’re really unlucky but because (the poor conditions) happened two years ago it’s unlikely to happen again,” Marriott said.

The potentially dryer than normal winter threatened by El Nino comes on the heels of another record: the driest summer on record. More than 300,000 acres of Washington land was burned by wildfires. But El Nino and the dry summer season are not connected.

KING 5's Glenn Farley contributed to this report.