05:00 PM PDT on Friday, June 4, 2004

KING5.com

Associated Press Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., speaks at the Harry S. Truman Library and Museum in Independence, Mo., on Thursday, June 3, 2004.

If the presidential election were held today, Democratic challenger John Kerry would beat George Bush by the same margin Al Gore did in 2000 in Washington State, according to an exclusive new poll done for KING 5 News.

The latest KING 5 News/SurveyUSA poll also shows Democratic Sen. Patty Murray with a commanding lead over Republican challenger Rep. George Nethercutt. Murray would gain 49 percent of the vote to Nethercutt's 34 percent. Twelve percent of voters said they were undecided in that race.

The statewide poll was conducted by phone Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday of 654 likely voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent

Among those polled, 49 percent said they would vote for Kerry and 44 percent would vote for Bush. Three percent of voters said they would vote for independent candidate Ralph Nader. Only 2 percent of voters said they were undecided.

The split is almost identical to the outcome on Election Day in 2000, when Gore beat Bush by 5 percent and Nader got 4.

Kerry's strongest support comes from women and those between the ages of 18 and 34 and those over 50. Fifty three percent of those voters aged 50 to 64 said they would vote for Kerry.

Kerry is weakest among 35- to 49-year-olds, 42 percent of whom said they would vote for him.

Bush's support is strongest (49 percent) among men and among those in the 35-49 age bracket, where he gets 50 percent support. The president's support in Washington State is weakest among Hispanics, only 28 percent of which said they would vote for him.

KING 5 News will be commissioning tracking polls throughout the election season as the race heats up in Washington.