Airlines will need 41,030 new airliners worth more than $6 trillion over the next twenty years. Those are the findings from Boeing's Current Market Outlook released Tuesday at the Paris Air Show.
The CMO looks at global economic and other factors as it gauges airplane sales moving forward.
The 41,030 is for expected demand for all airplane manufacturers but only includes jets with 30 or more seats. It does not include turboprops, business jets or military purchases. It does include all-cargo freighters such as the 747-8, 767 and 777.
Boeing continues to estimate that air traffic will significantly outpace the world economy with average passenger traffic growth of 4.7 percent. Air cargo, which has struggled for years, may finally be on a solid footing with a growth forecast of 4.2 percent. That last number should be good news for the Boeing’s 747 program which is building planes at a rate of just six aircraft per year.
Asia continues to lead the world in passenger growth, Boeing said. China alone is expected to surpass the United States as the world’s biggest market in just a few years. Growth in China is forecast to grow at a rate of 6.1 percent. Overall, the Asia market is expanding at 5.7 percent, Boeing said. But the need to replace aging jets still makes North America the leader among mature markets with growth expected to average 2.6 percent.
What does that mean for Boeing in Puget Sound? Probably a solid footing for the company’s Renton factory which is dedicated to the 737. Seventy-two percent of the jets airlines are expected to buy will come from the so-called single-aisle category that also includes the Airbus 320 series and new planes to the market like the Comac 919 from China. Just over half of the $6 trillion will go into single-aisle planes.
Another 5,000 jets could fit into a category known as small widebodies. Boeing is developing a new airplane for that market, the NMA or “New Midsize Airplane,” likely to be a small twin-aisle jet filling the gap between the 737 and planes like the 787 Dreamliner. More than 3,000 jets are large passenger widebodies such as the Boeing 777.
Sales of the Boeing 747 and 767 largely are expected to continue as freighters. Boeing forecasting 920 freighters would be needed over the same period or two percent of the planes purchased.
Boeing expects the number of airliners flying to double from 23,480 jets in service in 2016 to 46,950 by 2036. Of the total number, 57 percent of the planes flying would be to help airlines expand service. Forty-three percent or 27,560 jets would be purchased to replace older planes. The remaining 5,920 would be older jets that continue to fly.
A typical airliner is in service for 20 to 25 years before the cost to maintain causes it to be retired and replaced with a newer more fuel efficient model.
Boeing expects to deliver between 760 and 765 jets in 2017, which it expects will maintain its lead over Airbus it’s claimed since 2012.