Mariners vs. Blue Jays Wild Card preview: Can Seattle continue its magic season?
The Mariners will play postseason baseball Friday afternoon. No, this isn't a joke. You aren't dreaming either.
The Seattle Mariners will play playoff baseball Friday afternoon.
No, this isn't a joke.
You're not dreaming either.
After 21 consecutive Octobers without postseason baseball, the drought is mercifully over.
MLB playoff schedule: Mariners vs. Blue Jays, dates, times and format
Seattle finished its 2022 season with a 90-72 record, good for the fifth seed in the American League.
Next up, a wild card series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Series info
Although the Mariners won't be hosting any of the team's first MLB playoff games since 2001, fans still will have a chance to watch their team from inside T-Mobile Park.
The Mariners will host watch parties for each Wild Card game on Oct. 7 and Oct. 8. A potential Game 3 would be Oct. 9.
The games will be broadcast on MarinersVision, which the organization said is one of the largest screens in the Northwest.
Tickets are $10 for the public and $5 for season-ticket holders. Open seating will be available on the Main Level and in The 'Pen.
Parking at the Mariners Garage will cost $10, and the team said a portion of the proceeds from the event will benefit the Mariners Care Foundation.
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays (92-70) vs. Seattle Mariners (90-72)
- Time: Friday (1:07 p.m. PST); Saturday (1:07 p.m.); Sunday, if necessary (11:07 a.m.)
- Channel: Game 1 (ESPN), Game 2 (ESPN), Game 3 (ABC)
- Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, Canada
- Key Mariners: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Cal Raleigh
- Mariners starting rotation: Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert
- Key Blue Jays: Bo Bichette, George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr
- Blue Jays starting rotation: Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman, Ross Stripling
Magic Mariners
To get to this point is nothing sort of magic after the Mariners were one of the five worst teams in baseball at the end of May. Seattle was 18-27 and on pace for 65 wins, which would have been the fifth-worst record in the league.
At the time, the younger players were struggling, the pitching rotation was in shambles, injuries hit key players and Robbie Ray had regressed across the board.
FanGraphs projected the Mariners to win just 76 games at that point.
Then the Mariners started winning and winning and winning, thanks to a combination of pitching improvements and the otherworldly rookie season from Julio Rodriguez.
Oh, and they traded for Luis Castillo at the deadline too.
The Mariners ended up winning 90 games and nabbing a playoff spot comfortably.
It was a remarkable rise considering the team's nadir in May and what seemed like an impossible hole to climb out of.
Now the Mariners have at least two road playoff games to continue its magic season against the favored Blue Jays.
The team's playoff run starts and ends with Rodriguez, a 21-year-old wunderkind that was named Baseball America's Rookie of the Year and had the eighth highest Wins Above Replacement (5.3) in the American League (AL).
Rodriguez is a bonafide star already and will need some help from Eugenio Suarez, Ty France, Cal Raleigh and Jesse Winker to match a star-studded Blue Jays offense.
Blue Jays star-studded offense
Toronto is either the first or second-best offense in the AL, depending on how you view them.
The Blue Jays finished the regular season first in batting average (.264), first in on-base percentage (.329), first in slugging percentage (.431) and second in runs scored (775). The Yankees were first in the AL with 807 runs.
First baseman Vladimir Guererro Jr, who challenged Shohei Ohtani for the 2021 AL MVP award by leading MLB in home runs and runs, was just fifth on his own offense in wins above replacement. (That should be noted, however, was due in large part to his negative impact on the defense.) Guerrero Jr. wasn't quite as good offensively this year, but even a down year for the 23-year-old represents a great year for the average big league player.
The strength of the Blue Jays' offense is in its sheer numbers on top of its star players. Toronto has a whopping six players -- Guerrero Jr, George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk and Matt Chapman -- that had a 115 OPS+ or higher, which means they were at least 15% better than an average hitter.
You can count the number of offenses leaguewide that boast that kind of depth in a lineup.
Toronto is slightly vulnerable from a pitching standpoint, however. The Blue Jays had the worst earned run average (3.87) among all playoff teams in the league and allowed 679 total runs. The Mariners allowed 623, for comparison's sake.
In a short series where Toronto will host every home game, their pitching depth might not matter. Toronto will lean on Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman as its top starters, a pair that was miles better than average pitchers in 2022.
Manoah finished the year with a 2.24 ERA in nearly 200 innings, and Gausman tossed 205 strikeouts and just 28 walks in 174 innings. The Blue Jays need them to be just fine because their offense can carry them to a win in any single game.
It'll be a tall task for the Mariners on both sides.
Series prediction
Blue Jays in 3 games.
This series could easily go in the Mariners' favor, but the combination of home playoff games, two star pitchers on the mound and a deep lineup of power hitters tilt the series slightly in Toronto's favor.
I'd love to be wrong, for the record.